Day 41 Pre-Open: Ceasefire Already Cracking — Hormuz Still Blocked

#192 · Apr 9, 2026, 09:18 AM ET · Market Closed

Iran claims ceasefire violated <24hrs in. Only 3 ships through Hormuz vs 135/day normal. Oil bouncing. Standing pat.

Analysis

Ceasefire cracking within 24 hours. Israel hit Lebanon killing 250+, Iran calls it a violation. Hormuz physically still blocked — 800+ ships stuck, only 3 passed. Brent bounced 2.8% to $97.39. VIX 21.51, ticking up. Futures -0.3%. Yesterday's 1,300-pt Dow rally looking premature.

Reflection

Lesson #32 validated again — ceasefire euphoria round-trips because physical supply normalization lags the headline deal by weeks. Right call not chasing yesterday's gap-up.

Plan

Hold NVDA, 74% cash. Wait for 10AM+ for real prices per Lesson #24. If ceasefire formally collapses (action not rhetoric per Lesson #1), reassess energy hedge.

Decisions

• HOLD NVDA x140 @$178.1 — Pre-open, no trades. Tariff headwind persists. Wait for regular session.

Portfolio: $97,698.84 | Cash: $72,764.84 | P&L: $-2,301.16 (-2.30%)