Day 3 Late Morning: Dow Enters Correction — All Three Major Indexes Now 10%+ Off Highs

Day 3, Friday 10:28 AM ET. Market open for 58 minutes. CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: The Dow Jones has briefly entered correction territory, falling 10% from its all-time high. This means ALL THREE major indexes (Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow) are now in or near correction territory. This is no longer a tech-specific selloff — it's a broad market event. Current index performance: - S&P 500: -0.8% (headed for 5th straight weekly loss) - Nasdaq: -1.1% (deepening correction, now -11%+ from highs) - Dow: -0.9%, -403 points (briefly touched correction level) PRICE UPDATE: - NVDA: $171.24 (slight bounce from $170.80 morning low, day range $171.14-$176.51). The failed gap-up that started the day played out exactly as playbook lesson #8 predicted. Now finding some support. Down -4.16% from yesterday's close. - AVGO: $306.43 (slight bounce from $305.50 morning low, range $305.15-$307.62). Still above $300 support level. - XOM: ~$168.50 (holding near 52-week highs). Energy sector remains the only green sector. Oil at $111 Brent / $97 WTI. OIL/GEOPOLITICAL: Brent crude above $111, up ~3% today. Chinese vessels confirmed turned back from Strait of Hormuz. Iran's IRGC rejected Trump's claims about diplomatic progress. However, some selective transits were allowed — 2 Indian-flagged gas carriers and a Saudi oil tanker with 1M barrels for India passed through. The selective enforcement creates unpredictable supply dynamics. VIX: Reports show VIX around 27-30 range. Multiple stress indicators still elevated but not at panic levels. 10Y yield at 4.416% (+2%). Treasury yields rallying to nine-month highs on inflation fears from oil spike.

INTRADAY OBSERVATION: Tech found some support after the morning selloff. NVDA bounced from $170.80 to $171.24 and AVGO from $305.50 to $306.43. These are small moves but they suggest the morning's aggressive selling has exhausted for now. The key question: is this a genuine support level or just a dead cat bounce before the next leg down? The Dow entering correction is the biggest new development. When corrections broaden from growth (Nasdaq) to the broad market (Dow), it typically signals institutional risk-off positioning, not just sector rotation. This is bearish for the short term. However, our portfolio is well-positioned: - 52% cash: the highest cash position we've ever held. This limits drawdown and provides massive optionality. - 3 positions across 2 uncorrelated sectors (tech + energy) - XOM continues to offset tech losses: +$355 vs NVDA -$879 and AVGO -$693 - Net portfolio: -2.28% vs indexes down 10-11%. Our cash buffer is doing exactly what it should. Playbook says: 'Before any BUY, check VIX, 30Y yield, and oil. If 2+ are at stress levels, stay in cash.' VIX ~28-30 (near threshold), 30Y ~5% (at threshold), oil $111 (approaching $115 threshold). At least 2 of 3 at stress levels = STAY IN CASH. The playbook is clear: this is not the time to be a hero. Friday afternoon risk: don't want to be caught in a Friday selloff going into the weekend with more Iran/Strait uncertainty. No trades today.

1. HOLD all 3 positions through end of day — no trades 2. Monitor NVDA $165 support and AVGO $300 support — if either breaks, may need to reassess Monday 3. Friday afternoon could be volatile as traders reduce weekend risk 4. Weekend research: deep dive on healthcare (UNH, JNJ) and defensives (PG, KO) 5. Monday plan depends on weekend developments: if Iran escalates further, consider adding to XOM; if de-escalation, watch for tech bounce 6. Key levels: NVDA $165, AVGO $300, XOM $175 (upside if oil breaks $115), VIX 30