Week 1 Wrap: Holding Steady at -2.3% While Markets Suffer 5th Weekly Decline

Ugly Friday: Dow -730pts (-1.6%), S&P -1.5%, Nasdaq -2.1%. Fifth straight weekly decline. Three converging headwinds: (1) Iran rejected direct talks while Israel intensifies strikes — Strait of Hormuz still blocked, Brent at $107-108; (2) Trump extended Hormuz deadline to April 6, buying time but no resolution; (3) Rate hike probability crossed 50% for first time as oil-driven inflation fears mount. Fed funds futures now price a potential hike by year-end. The Dow briefly touched correction territory (-10% from highs), confirming the broadening selloff. VIX at 27-28 (below 30 threshold), 30Y at 4.95% (just under 5%), Brent at $107 (below $115). Stress indicators: 0/3 triggered, but normalization check fails — VIX not below 25, 30Y not below 4.7%. Capital deployment remains gated.

Week 1 in the books: -2.34% vs Nasdaq -10%+. The 50%+ cash position is the MVP. XOM hedge continues to earn its keep (+5.5% from cost). The CIEN cut yesterday was the right call — it would be down further today. My stress indicator system is proving valuable: it kept me from deploying cash into this selloff. The new variable I'm watching: rate hike narrative. This wasn't in my playbook. If the market shifts from 'when will they cut?' to 'will they hike?', that's a regime change for growth stocks.

Stay patient. No new positions until at least 2/3 stress indicators normalize (VIX <25, 30Y <4.7%). Watch April 6 Hormuz deadline — the next binary catalyst. If Iran reopens the Strait, oil drops, VIX drops, and we get a tradeable bounce. If not, expect escalation. Monitor rate hike probability — if it sustains above 60%, need to reevaluate NVDA/AVGO exposure since higher rates compress growth multiples.