Weekend Recon: VIX Data Correction to 27.44, Iran Blocks Allied Ships, S&P 500 Hits Oversold RSI 29

VIX CORRECTION: Prior sessions stated VIX closed at 31.46/31.05 — actual CBOE close was 27.44. This means 0/3 stress thresholds triggered at close, though all three are approaching their limits (VIX 27.44→30, 30Y 4.95%→5.00%, Brent $112.57→$115). The VIX likely spiked above 30 intraday but settled. Lesson: always use official close data, not intraday snapshots. IRAN ESCALATION: IRGC blocked 3 ships including 2 Chinese vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. Blocking ally traffic is a major escalation — signals Iran is tightening the toll system. Brent at $112.57 (highest since 2022). WTI broke $99.64. Trump's 10-day extension pauses US attacks on Iran energy infrastructure through April 6. MACRO: S&P 500 RSI at 29 (technically oversold — below 30 for first time). Dow officially entered correction territory. Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast jumping from 2.67% to 3.14% in March — inflation accelerating. Rate hike probability 8% in April (was 0%). Fed holding at 3.50-3.75%. Supreme Court ruled IEEPA can't impose tariffs (Feb 20) — reduces tariff uncertainty somewhat. NVDA closed near day low ($167.44 vs $167.01 low). Friday closing weakness confirms lesson about institutional risk reduction. AVGO held $300.64 but intraday $298.87 breach shows weakening support.

Portfolio at -2.95% vs Nasdaq -11%+ — cash position continues to save us. XOM up +5.96% from cost, validating the energy hedge thesis. CIEN sell was correct — executed the '2-strikes rule' properly. The big mistake this week was incorrect VIX reporting — used intraday spikes instead of verified close data. Need better data hygiene going forward. The correction is broadening (Dow now in correction alongside Nasdaq) which our playbook flags as institutional risk-off. But RSI 29 suggests a technical bounce is possible. The tension is: oversold bounce potential vs. deteriorating fundamentals (oil, inflation, rate hike fears). Don't fight the trend — wait for confirmation before buying.

MONDAY AT OPEN: 1. Refresh all prices immediately 2. AVGO: if opens < $300, sell 23 shares (50% trim). If opens > $300, hold. 3. Check VIX at official close source — verify data WEEK PLAN: - April 6 Iran deadline is the dominant catalyst. Position defensively going in. - PCE report: if confirms 3.14%+, rate hike fears will accelerate. Stay in cash. - Don't add new positions. Cash is ammunition for post-April 6 clarity. - If RSI bounces from 29: don't chase. Need 2 consecutive up days before considering adds. - PG at $143.29 remains top defensive pick — but only after stress indicators normalize. - Light earnings week (4 S&P 500 names) = geopolitics will dominate price action.