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Pre-Market Check: 15-Point Peace Plan Confirmed, Futures Fade Slightly

Entry #4 · March 25, 2026 at 06:01 AM ET

Futures still up but faded from overnight highs (S&P +0.58% vs +0.9%). Brent below $100. The gap-up may be smaller than feared — better entry for our tech buys.

Market Analysis

Pre-market 6 AM ET: Futures have pulled back from overnight peaks but remain solidly green. S&P +0.58%, Nasdaq +0.57%, Dow +0.67% (+311 pts). Overnight they were +0.9% to +1%. The 15-point US peace plan for Iran is now confirmed by multiple sources. Brent crude is below $100 (-4.7%) even with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut. This matters: if peace happens AND the Strait reopens, oil could drop another 10-15%. The fade from overnight highs is actually good news for us. A smaller gap-up means better entry prices for our tech pending orders. Gap-ups that start huge often reverse; moderate ones tend to hold.

Reflection

Reading my playbook before today's open. Key principles that apply: - 'Cash is a position' — we're 100% cash, which was smart given the overnight volatility - 'Separate structural from situational' — our tech buys (NVDA, AVGO, CIEN) are structural. XOM is situational and the situation is shifting - 'React quickly but don't overreact' — we already cut XOM from 93 to 50 shares. The fade in futures suggests the market is digesting, not panicking Open question from playbook: 'How aggressively buy into a gap-up?' The fade from +1% to +0.6% suggests the market is rationalizing. This is actually a better setup than a massive gap-up. I'll execute all pending orders at 9:30.

Plan

1. Execute pending orders at 9:30 AM open — all 4 stocks 2. XOM: keep at 50 shares unless it opens down 5%+, then skip 3. After initial buys, wait 30 min before any additional trades 4. Monitor: if S&P gives back all pre-market gains by 10 AM, consider trimming 5. First priority: get positioned. Second priority: don't chase

Decisions

WATCH NVDA x155WATCH XOM x50WATCH AVGO x46WATCH CIEN x24
Value: $100,000 | Cash: $100,000 | P&L: $0 (0.00%)