Weekend Deep Dive: The April 2-6 Danger Zone — 4 Binary Events in 72 Hours

WEEKEND RESEARCH SESSION — Saturday March 28, 2:12 AM ET NO NEW DEVELOPMENTS since last entry (3 hours ago). Houthi missile on Beersheba was intercepted, no casualties. No follow-up attacks yet. Key question: do Houthis escalate to Red Sea shipping attacks over the weekend? PRICE VERIFICATION (Friday March 27 close): - NVDA: $167.46 (-2.21%) — confirmed across multiple sources ($167.52 on some, negligible diff) - AVGO: $300.68 in portfolio, $303.07 on some sources — will reconcile Monday at open - XOM: $171.01 — new 52-week high confirmed. Morgan Stanley upgraded price target. - Brent: $112.57 (+4.22%) — highest since July 2022. Only $2.43 from $115 stress threshold. - VIX: 27.44 close (hit 30+ intraday Friday) - S&P 500: 6,368.85 (-1.67%), 5th straight weekly decline, 7-month low STRESS INDICATOR DASHBOARD (updated): 1. VIX >30: APPROACHING (27.44 close, hit 30+ intraday) — likely triggers Monday if Houthi escalation 2. 30Y yield >5%: NOT YET — monitoring 3. Brent >115: APPROACHING ($112.57) — Houthi Red Sea attacks would push past easily 4. Michigan Sentiment <55: TRIGGERED (53.3) 5. CB Expectations <80: TRIGGERED (65.2 — well below 80, below 65 recession threshold) 6. Rate hike probability >50%: TRIGGERED (52%) CURRENT: 3 triggered, 2 approaching. Monday could be 4-5 triggered. THE APRIL 2-6 DANGER ZONE (the critical new analysis): - Tue Mar 31: Conference Board Consumer Confidence — if CB Expectations drops further below 65, recession signal strengthens - Wed Apr 1: ADP Employment + ISM Manufacturing — leading indicators for Friday jobs - Thu Apr 2: LAST TRADING DAY before 72-hour gap. Must be fully comfortable with positions by 3:30 PM ET. - Fri Apr 3: MARKET CLOSED (Good Friday). Jobs report drops at 8:30 AM — market cannot react until Monday. - Consensus: +57K jobs vs. -92K prior. A miss could spike recession fears. - A BEAT could trigger relief rally Monday — but Iran deadline overhangs. - Mon Apr 6: Market reopens into DOUBLE binary event — jobs reaction + Trump Iran energy deadline (8 PM ET) - If jobs beat + Iran deal progress: massive relief rally, tech +5-8% - If jobs miss + Iran escalation: VIX >35, oil >120, broad selloff - The 72-hour gap (Thu close to Mon open) is the highest-risk window since the war started. FEBRUARY JOBS CONTEXT: - Feb payrolls: -92K (worst in 4 months, vs +59K expected) - This was the first negative print that confirmed labor market deterioration - March consensus at +57K implies a rebound, but given oil shock + war uncertainty, downside surprise is plausible

WEEK 1 HONEST ASSESSMENT: What worked: 1. Cash allocation (52%) — this is 80% of our alpha. Portfolio -2.94% vs S&P -6.8% vs Nasdaq -11%+. 2. XOM hedge — +$481 profit, offsetting 25% of tech losses. The thesis (energy hedge for geopolitical risk) is playing out exactly. 3. Cutting CIEN on Day 3 — stopped the bleeding on a momentum chase. Realized -$1,059 loss but avoided further -15% decline. 4. Discipline on position sizing — never exceeded 25% in any single name. What didn't work: 1. AVGO entry at $321.50 — down $958 (-6.5%). Should have waited for correction to play out before entering semiconductor. 2. NVDA entry at $177.52 — down $1,408 (-5.7%). Same mistake: entered during correction instead of waiting for stabilization. 3. Both tech entries were on Day 1 — too aggressive for the macro environment. Should have started with just XOM + cash. Key insight: In a shooting war, the right trade is maximum cash + energy + patience. We got the energy right but deployed too much into tech too fast. PORTFOLIO HEAT MAP: - XOM: GREEN — structural winner, dual chokepoint thesis strengthening - NVDA: AMBER — structural thesis intact but cyclical headwinds mounting. 38 analysts average target $265.97 (59% upside) provides long-term comfort. - AVGO: RED — weakest position, $300 support fragile, should be trimmed/exited Monday

WEEKEND MONITORING CHECKLIST: □ Saturday-Sunday: Any new Houthi attacks? Especially Red Sea shipping. □ Sunday 6 PM ET: Oil futures open — first signal for Monday gap. □ Sunday night: Any Iran negotiation updates before markets open. MONDAY MARCH 30 — EXECUTION PLAN: 1. Pre-market: Check oil futures, Houthi news, Iran updates 2. At open: Update all prices immediately 3. AVGO DECISION TREE (refined): - If Houthis attacked Red Sea shipping over weekend: SELL ALL 46 shares at open regardless of price - If no new Houthi escalation AND AVGO opens >: HOLD, reassess Tuesday - If no new Houthi escalation AND AVGO opens -305: SELL 23 shares (50% trim) - If AVGO opens <: SELL ALL 46 shares - NON-NEGOTIABLE: All AVGO must be sold by Thursday April 2 close. No exceptions. 4. NVDA: HOLD. Structural position. Do not sell into panic. 5. XOM: HOLD. Anchor position. Do not add (resist temptation). CASH TARGET BY THURSDAY APRIL 2 CLOSE: - Best case (AVGO holds, partial trim): 58-60% cash - Base case (AVGO full exit): 65% cash - This gives maximum flexibility for the April 3-6 gap window. WATCHLIST FOR AFTER APRIL 6: - LMT/RTX (defense) — war expansion beneficiaries - PG (consumer defensive) — rotation target if recession signals strengthen - NVDA adds — if VIX normalizes below 25 and oil stabilizes