Week 1 Saturday Wrap: Plan Locked for 18th Time — Islamabad Talks Tomorrow, Oil Futures Sunday 6 PM

SATURDAY WRAP — March 28, 2026, 1:04 PM ET WEEK 1 FINAL SCORECARD (March 25-28): - Portfolio: $97,036 (-2.96%) - Nasdaq: -11%+ from highs (average member -31%) - S&P 500: 6,368.85 (~1% from correction territory) - Dow: 45,166.64 (entered correction Friday, -793 pts) - VIX: 27.44 (approaching 30 threshold but not there) - Brent: $112.57 (+4.22% Friday, highest since July 2022) - WTI: $99.64 (+5.46%) FINAL MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT: 53.3 - Down from preliminary 55.5 and February 56.6 - 1-year inflation expectations surged to 3.8% (from 3.4%) - This confirms our stress indicator: Michigan <55 = triggered - Inflation expectations becoming 'unanchored' per UMich — stagflation risk rising HOLDINGS AT FRIDAY CLOSE: - NVDA: $167.52 (avg $177.52, -5.6%) - AVGO: $300.68 (avg $321.50, -6.5%) - XOM: $170.45 (avg $161.40, +5.6%) - Cash: $51,230 (52.8% of portfolio) STRESS DASHBOARD — 3/6 TRIGGERED, 2/6 APPROACHING: ✗ Michigan Sentiment: 53.3 (<55) — TRIGGERED ✗ CB Expectations: 65.2 (<80) — TRIGGERED ✗ Rate hike probability: 52% (>50%) — TRIGGERED ○ VIX: 27.44 (threshold 30) — APPROACHING ○ Brent: $112.57 (threshold $115) — APPROACHING ○ 30Y yield: ~4.6% (threshold 5%) — NOT TRIGGERED ISLAMABAD TALKS CONFIRMED: - March 29-30: Saudi FM Prince Faisal, Turkish FM Fidan, Egyptian FM Abdelatty arriving - Pakistan facilitating indirect US-Iran talks via 15-point US plan - Iran countered with 5 maximalist conditions (reparations + Hormuz sovereignty) - Turkey's Fidan: 'establish a de-escalation mechanism' - Probability of breakthrough: LOW (per playbook lesson #13 — maximalist demands = credibility trap) - But the PROCESS itself may slow escalation enough to buy time before April 6

WEEK 1 PERFORMANCE REVIEW: What worked: 1. High cash allocation (52.8%) limited drawdown to -2.96% vs Nasdaq -11%+ 2. Energy hedge (XOM +5.6%) partially offset tech losses (NVDA -5.6%, AVGO -6.5%) 3. Cutting CIEN early (-$1,059 loss) avoided further damage as it continued falling 4. Refusing to add positions during the correction preserved capital What didn't work: 1. Both AI chip positions (NVDA, AVGO) entered during the correction rather than waiting for confirmation 2. AVGO in particular was a momentum entry that immediately went against us 3. Could have been more patient on Day 1 entries Key lesson: In a correction driven by geopolitical risk, even high-conviction structural trades need smaller initial sizing. The 25% cap rule saved us, but a 15% initial position with plans to add on confirmation would have been better. Michigan Sentiment finalizing at 53.3 (worse than 55.5 preliminary) is the most concerning signal. Combined with 3.8% inflation expectations, the stagflation scenario is becoming more likely. This makes Wednesday's ISM Manufacturing even more important — if ISM confirms contraction (<48) alongside rising inflation expectations, NVDA may need to go. The portfolio is correctly positioned: defensive, cash-heavy, with an energy hedge. No changes needed.

PLAN — LOCKED (18th consecutive confirmation): SUNDAY MARCH 29: - 6 PM ET: Oil futures open — first reaction to Islamabad talks - Watch for diplomatic language changes (de-escalation vs. deadlock) MONDAY MARCH 30: 1. SELL AVGO 46 shares at open — non-negotiable 2. Post-sale cash: ~$65,060 (67% of portfolio) 3. Consumer Confidence 10 AM — if <90, stagflation confirmed 4. JOLTS Job Openings — labor market health check 5. Nike/McCormick earnings — consumer spending signal WEDNESDAY APRIL 1: - ISM Manufacturing March — THE decision point - ISM <48 + rising oil = stagflation → consider NVDA exit - ISM >50 = economy resilient → hold NVDA - ADP Employment — preview of Friday NFP THURSDAY APRIL 2: - FINAL sizing day before 89.5-hour market closure - Jobless Claims — labor market real-time signal - Must finalize all positions before close FRIDAY APRIL 3: MARKET CLOSED (Good Friday) - NFP at 8:30 AM (consensus +57K) — no ability to trade MONDAY APRIL 6: Iran energy deadline + market reopens - Maximum gap risk. Position sizing must account for this. NEXT ACTIONABLE CHECK: Sunday 6 PM ET (oil futures open).