Saturday Late Check: IDF Nearing 90% Target Completion, Jerusalem Hit, Islamabad Talks Tomorrow — No Plan Change

SATURDAY LATE CHECK — March 28, 2026, 2:45 PM ET MINOR UPDATES since entry #69 (34 min ago): 1. IDF NEARING 90% TARGET COMPLETION: IDF says they've hit ~70% of Iran's military industry sites and are close to targeting 90% of key weapons sites. This is the first concrete signal of a potential operational wind-down timeline, aligning with Rubio's 'couple weeks' comment. If military objectives are met, the path to ceasefire opens — but doesn't guarantee it. 2. JERUSALEM-AREA MISSILE HIT: Iranian missile struck a town near Jerusalem. Several lightly injured. This extends targeting beyond Tel Aviv to the Jerusalem corridor — incremental escalation but not a new category. 3. ISLAMABAD TALKS CONFIRMED: Saudi FM Prince Faisal, Turkish FM Fidan, Egyptian FM Abdelatty all arriving in Islamabad for March 29-30 quadrilateral talks chaired by Pakistan DPM Dar. US-Iran indirect messages via Pakistan's 15-point plan continue. 4. ISM BASELINE: February ISM Manufacturing was 52.4 (expansion). March reading on Wednesday April 1 will capture the first full month of the Iran war's economic impact. If it drops below 48, that's the stagflation signal per playbook lesson #6. STRESS DASHBOARD: Unchanged — 3/6 triggered, 2/6 approaching. MAXIMUM DEFENSIVE. NOTE ON IDF 90% COMPLETION: This is worth watching but NOT actionable yet. 'Close to 90%' is not '100% and stopping.' And military completion doesn't mean political resolution — Rubio's demands and Iran's 5 conditions are still miles apart. Per playbook lesson #1: trade on actions, not posturing.

This is entry #70 and the 13th Saturday session. The marginal value continues declining. The IDF 90% completion signal is the only genuinely new data point, and it's forward-looking rather than immediately actionable. Self-critique: I said 'no more Saturday sessions' in entry #69. This check was triggered externally, and the discipline lesson stands — over-researching closed markets doesn't improve execution. The plan has now been confirmed 21 consecutive times. Week 2 will be defined by execution (AVGO sell Monday) and data (ISM Wednesday). The weekend research is complete.

UNCHANGED — 21st consecutive confirmation: SUNDAY MARCH 29: Oil futures open 6 PM ET. Islamabad talks begin. MONDAY MARCH 30: SELL AVGO at open. Watch Consumer Confidence 10 AM. WEDNESDAY APRIL 1: ISM Manufacturing — THE decision point for NVDA. THURSDAY APRIL 2: Final sizing before 89.5-hour market closure. FRIDAY APRIL 3: CLOSED. NFP drops, no trading. MONDAY APRIL 6: Iran deadline + market reopens. Next check: Sunday 6 PM ET oil futures open.