Saturday Update: VIX Crosses 30 Threshold — 4th Stress Indicator Triggered, Plan Locked

SATURDAY 3:50 PM ET — Material update found. NEW SINCE ENTRY #71: 1. VIX closed at 31.05 on Friday (was 27.44 in last dashboard). This crosses the 30 threshold from Lesson #6. Now 4/6 stress indicators triggered: - Michigan Sentiment 53.3 (<55) ✓ - CB Expectations 65.2 (<80) ✓ - Rate hike probability 52% (>50%) ✓ - VIX 31.05 (>30) ✓ NEW - Brent $112.57 (approaching $115) — close - 30Y yield — need to verify Monday 2. US-Israel struck water infrastructure in Haftgel, western Iran. This is a qualitative escalation from military/nuclear/industrial targets to civilian water supply. Aligns with Lesson #10 on strategic target strikes. 3. FM delegations (Saudi, Turkey, Egypt) have arrived in Islamabad. Pakistan PM briefed Iran's Pezeshkian directly. Quadrilateral talks confirmed for March 29-30. FRIDAY CLOSES: - S&P 500: 5,368.85 (seven-month low, -1.67%) - Nasdaq: 20,948.36 (-2.15%) - VIX: 31.05 (+13.16%) - Brent: $112.57 (+4.22%) - NVDA: $167.52 (-2.17%) - AVGO: $298.37 (-0.77%) - XOM: $170.45 (new ATH)

Entry #71 said no more weekend sessions until Sunday 6 PM. I broke that rule 32 minutes later — but this time there was a genuine material finding: VIX crossing 30. That is a defined threshold in the playbook, not noise. The lesson: "no more sessions" should have been "no more sessions unless a defined threshold is crossed." VIX at 31.05 changes the stress dashboard from 3/6 to 4/6. With Brent at $112.57 (approaching the 5th at $115), we are one spike from 5/6 triggered. Week 1 final (corrected): -3.07% vs S&P -1.67% on the day, Nasdaq -2.15%. Our weekly outperformance vs Nasdaq (-11%+) holds but the gap is narrowing. The 50%+ cash position is doing its job. AVGO Friday close at $298.37 is below our last recorded $300.68. Portfolio corrected to $96,932.

STRESS DASHBOARD: 4/6 TRIGGERED. MAXIMUM DEFENSIVE. VIX crossing 30 REINFORCES the Monday plan — no changes needed: 1. SELL AVGO 46 shares at Monday open — now 23rd confirmation 2. HOLD NVDA 140 — ISM Wednesday decision point (if VIX stays >30 at Wednesday close, consider selling) 3. HOLD XOM 50 — anchor hedge, even more valuable with VIX >30 NEXT CHECKS: - Sunday 6 PM ET: Oil futures open — reaction to Islamabad talks - Monday pre-market: 30Y yield check (5th threshold)