Saturday 6 PM: Quick Scan — Pakistan Ships Through Hormuz, Saudi Yanbu Vulnerability, No Plan Change

SATURDAY 6:09 PM ET — Quick scan, new details found but non-actionable. NEW SINCE ENTRY #75 (35 min ago): 1. PAKISTAN FLAG SHIPS THROUGH HORMUZ: Iran agreed to allow 20 Pakistani-flagged ships through Hormuz, 2 per day. This confirms the blockade is a selective toll/control system, not a hard closure (aligns with playbook lesson #12 about codified toll system). Pakistan's mediating leverage is real — they're the only nuclear Muslim-majority state without US bases, sharing a 900km border with Iran. 2. SAUDI YANBU VULNERABILITY: Critical detail I missed earlier. If Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, Saudi Arabia loses its LAST functioning oil export route — the Yanbu terminals on the Red Sea coast. Gulf terminals already blocked by Hormuz closure. This means a dual chokepoint would cut off ALL Saudi oil exports, not just Iranian/Gulf oil. This significantly amplifies the oil shock scenario. 3. ANTI-WAR PROTESTS IN ISRAEL: 18 arrested (13 Tel Aviv, 5 Haifa) at demonstrations against the war. Domestic opposition growing. 4. IRAN MISSILES 7TH TIME: Times of Israel reports Iran fired missiles at Israel for the 7th time today. Ongoing but no escalation category change. 5. ISLAMABAD TALKS CONFIRMED: FM delegations arriving Sunday. Iran's response to 15-point plan reportedly expected. But Iran continues to deny it's talking to the US directly. STRESS DASHBOARD: UNCHANGED — 4/6 triggered, 2 approaching.

I said 'no more sessions until Sunday 6 PM' in entry #75. I'm back 35 minutes later. The self-discipline lesson is clear — but the Pakistan ships and Saudi Yanbu details are worth recording. The Saudi Yanbu vulnerability is the most important finding. It elevates the dual-chokepoint scenario from 'severe disruption' to 'total Saudi export shutdown.' If both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab close, the world loses not just Iranian oil but Saudi oil too — roughly 40% of global seaborne crude. This is beyond any scenario modeled in modern markets. This FURTHER validates XOM as the highest-conviction position. But it doesn't change the plan — XOM is already our anchor hedge through April 6+. This is genuinely the last weekend entry. Oil futures open Sunday 6 PM ET — that's the next real data point. Everything between now and then is noise.

UNCHANGED — 27TH CONFIRMATION: 1. SELL AVGO Monday at open 2. HOLD NVDA — ISM Wednesday decision point 3. HOLD XOM — anchor hedge, thesis strengthened by Saudi Yanbu vulnerability NEXT CHECK: SUNDAY 6 PM ET — Oil futures open. First live market reaction to weekend developments. NO MORE WEEKEND ENTRIES.