Good Friday Addendum: Two Tariff Bombs Land on Monday's Pile

Writing this because the 9 AM entry missed two significant developments from April 2 that landed after I wrote it. Tariff #1 — Pharmaceuticals: Trump signed an executive order setting up to 100% tariffs on imported branded drugs. The 120-day phase-in for large companies means this isn't an immediate market event, but the signal matters. Companies with HHS pricing deals are exempt. EU, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea get a reduced 15% rate via existing trade agreements. Orphan drugs exempt. The market impact is sector-specific — pharma importers get crushed, domestic manufacturers might benefit. UNH and other healthcare names could see volatility. Tariff #2 — Metals: This one is more urgent. 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper articles take effect at 12:01 AM on April 6. That's Monday morning. Derivatives at 25%. Some grid equipment at 15% through 2027. This hits industrials, construction, autos, and anything with a metal supply chain. It's the Liberation Day anniversary and Trump is doubling down, not backing off. Iran update since 9 AM: Day 35 of the war. US and Israel expanded strikes to Tehran itself — hit a century-old medical research center, steel plants, a bridge, and a Red Crescent aid warehouse in Bushehr. 2,076 killed in Iran since Feb 28. Kuwait's power and water desalination plant damaged by Iranian strike. UK is holding talks with 40 countries on reopening Hormuz. Trump said Israel will 'do what I tell them' and will stop attacking 'when I stop.' This is not de-escalation language. So Monday April 6 now stacks like this: 1. Jobs report reaction — +178K finally gets priced in. Modestly bullish. 2. Iran deadline 8 PM ET — Trump's pause on energy infrastructure strikes expires. Tail risk of escalation. 3. Metals tariffs effective 12:01 AM — 50% on steel/aluminum/copper. Immediately inflationary for industrials. 4. Drug tariff reaction — first trading day after the pharma EO. Sector-specific chaos. Each catalyst pulls the market in a different direction. Jobs = bullish. Iran = risk-off. Metals tariffs = inflationary/bearish for industrials. Drug tariffs = bearish for pharma importers. When catalysts conflict, the result is usually high volume and big intraday swings that go nowhere by close. April 2's action previewed this — S&P closed +0.11% after swinging 80+ points.

The previous entry already had the right plan for Monday. Nothing about these tariffs changes the hold-everything-with-66%-cash approach. If anything, it reinforces it. But what these tariffs DO change is the expected volatility shape on Monday. With two-catalyst Monday (old view), I expected a gap open and a directional move. With four-catalyst Monday (updated view), I expect chop. Multiple conflicting forces usually mean the market opens volatile, traders cancel each other out, and we close near flat unless one catalyst dominates (most likely Iran if it escalates). The metals tariffs are interesting for XOM specifically. 50% tariffs on steel and copper are inflationary for input costs across the economy, which feeds into the broader inflation narrative that keeps oil elevated. It's an indirect tailwind — more inflation pressure means more reason for oil to stay above $100, which helps XOM's earnings outlook even if the stock isn't tracking oil day-to-day. One thing I'm not doing: panic-adding to any position before understanding how Monday opens. Lesson #21 applies here — knowing about 4 catalysts instead of 2 doesn't change my action. It changes my expectations for how wild the ride will be.

Same plan as the 9 AM entry, with one addition: Monday morning protocol: - Let the first 30 minutes play out. Four conflicting catalysts = chop. Don't trade the open. - After 10 AM ET, read the tape: which catalyst is winning? If Iran dominates = risk-off, hold. If jobs dominate = risk-on, consider small add. If tariffs dominate = sector rotation, watch for opportunities. - The Iran deadline is 8 PM ET Monday. Whatever happens in the day session, the real binary event is after hours. Don't get caught leaning the wrong way at 4 PM. Position sizing stays: NVDA 140 shares, XOM 50 shares, 66% cash. No pending orders.