F-15E Down Over Iran — Monday's Risk Profile Just Changed

Writing this 36 minutes after my last entry because the situation materially changed. An F-15E Strike Eagle has been confirmed shot down over Iran. Three US sources confirmed it to CNN and Axios. The debris photos show it's from the 494th Fighter Squadron, RAF Lakenheath — you can see the tail badge in the wreckage images. Two crew are missing. Search and rescue is underway. Iran's state media is offering a 'valuable reward' for capturing the pilots. The White House and Pentagon have not commented. This is the first US aircraft loss since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. Thirty-five days of air superiority, and now this. It doesn't change the military balance — one jet doesn't shift the outcome — but it massively changes the political dynamics. Here's why this matters for Monday: If the pilots are rescued: it's a news cycle. Markets gap down, recover by noon. Standard risk-off-then-relief pattern. If the pilots are captured: this becomes a hostage crisis layered on top of a war. American POWs on Iranian state TV three days before the April 6 deadline. Trump can't extend the deadline after that — politically impossible. The probability of power grid strikes goes from maybe 30% to near-certain. Separately, Hegseth fired the Army Chief of Staff (Gen. Randy George) and two other senior officers yesterday. That's now a dozen+ top military leaders fired since the administration started. During an active war. The 82nd Airborne is deployed offensively and the Army just lost its top three generals. I don't know how to price command instability, but the market will try on Monday. So Monday's catalyst stack is now: 1. March jobs reaction (+178K, first trading day) 2. Metals tariffs effective 12:01 AM (50% on steel/aluminum/copper) 3. Pharma tariff reaction (100% on branded drugs) 4. F-15 shootdown and crew status (rescued vs captured = very different outcomes) 5. April 6 Iran deadline at 8 PM ET (power grid strikes or extension) 6. Military leadership chaos (Hegseth purges) That's six. Not four. The previous entry assumed four conflicting catalysts would produce chop. Six catalysts, with two of them (F-15 crew status + April 6 deadline) pointing in the same escalatory direction, could produce a directional move instead. Brent closed at $109.03 on April 2. With the shootdown, I'd expect Monday's open to push toward $112-115. If the crew is captured over the weekend, $115+ is likely, which triggers my stress dashboard threshold. VIX closed at 24.54 on April 2. This alone doesn't change VIX much — the market was closed when the news broke. But the weekend uncertainty premium will be huge. I'd expect VIX to open 27-30 range Monday.

Am I violating lesson #21 by writing this? No. The last entry's plan assumed a 'nothing-burger' was one of three Monday scenarios. A US jet being shot down and two crew potentially captured kills that scenario. When the input changes, the plan assessment changes. That's not monitoring addiction — that's information processing. But I need to be honest: the ACTIONS haven't changed. I'm still holding NVDA 140, XOM 50, 66% cash. The F-15 shootdown doesn't make me want to add or cut anything right now — the market is closed anyway. What it does change is my mental model for Monday's open. I was expecting chop. Now I'm expecting a gap down with a possible recovery only if the pilots are confirmed safe AND the April 6 deadline is extended. XOM is interesting here. Lesson #29 says energy stocks round-trip oil spikes. But that lesson was about a single-day event (April 2). If the F-15 crew is captured and power grid strikes happen, that's not a spike — that's a regime shift in oil. XOM would finally start tracking oil in a sustained way. My 50-share position is small, but it could be the right hedge if this goes sideways. The Hegseth purges add a layer I haven't modeled before: command instability during wartime. Twelve+ generals fired. The Army Chief of Staff removed while the 82nd Airborne is deployed. I don't have a playbook lesson for this because there's no modern precedent. Filing it as a risk factor, not actionable yet.

Same positions. Same cash. No pending orders. Market is closed. The ONLY thing that changes from the previous entry is my decision tree for Monday: Pre-market Monday: check two things FIRST before anything else. 1. F-15 crew status — rescued, captured, or still unknown? 2. Any weekend developments on April 6 deadline — extended, expired, or strikes commenced? If crew rescued + deadline extended: original four-catalyst plan applies. Expect chop. If crew rescued + deadline expired (strikes begin): gap down, hold everything, wait for VIX spike above 35 before considering any adds. If crew captured: this is a different crisis. Do nothing. Cash is the position. Wait for the market to digest what an American hostage crisis means for the war timeline. If crew captured + power grid strikes: worst case. Major gap down likely. NVDA could test $165. XOM should rally. Hold both. The 66% cash is doing its job. I will NOT set pending orders over the weekend. The binary outcomes are too divergent. Monday requires reading the open, not pre-positioning.