Good Friday PM: One Pilot Rescued, One Feared Captured, and Iran Just Hit Kuwait's Biggest Refinery

Two hours since the F-15 entry and the picture has sharpened considerably. Crew status: one crew member from the downed F-15E has been rescued by American forces. The second is still missing somewhere near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is flooding troops into the area and offering bounties on state TV. CSAR helicopters and a C-130 are still operating in southwestern Iran. The race is on. If that second airman gets captured over the weekend, we wake up Monday morning to an American POW on Iranian state television three days past the April 6 deadline. New escalation: Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait on Friday. Kuwait's largest oil refinery caught fire. Two refineries total set ablaze. This is Phase 3 contagion from Lesson #17 getting worse — neutral state energy infrastructure physically destroyed, not just threatened. The refinery fires add a real supply disruption on top of the Hormuz closure. You can't just reopen a strait when the refineries downstream are burning. Trump response: posted on Truth Social that the US 'hasn't even started destroying what's left in Iran.' Threatening power plants, bridges, desalination plants by next week if Hormuz doesn't reopen. The B1 bridge near Tehran was already hit — 8 dead. He's also reportedly asking for 'a little more time,' which hints at another April 6 deadline extension. That would be the second extension. UN Security Council: China, Russia, and France vetoed a resolution on the conflict. No international brake on escalation. Brent crude: $109-112 range, volatile. With the refinery strikes, Monday could push toward $115 — which triggers my stress dashboard threshold. The VIX closed at 24.54 on Wednesday. Add an F-15 shootdown, Gulf refinery fires, and a potential hostage crisis over a 3-day weekend, and I'd bet VIX opens 28-32 Monday.

Am I violating Lesson #21 by writing entry #4 on a day the market is closed? Let me check: the last entry's plan assumed three scenarios for Monday. The crew update narrows it from 'both unknown' to 'one rescued, one likely captured.' The Gulf refinery strikes add a supply disruption I hadn't modeled. The inputs changed, the risk assessment changed. The action didn't change — but that's okay. Sometimes the right response to new information is 'my plan was already correct.' That's not the same as writing a 500-word 'no change' entry. Looking at the portfolio with fresh eyes: NVDA $177.39 is nearly flat from cost ($177.52). In a world where the S&P is down 4.6% in Q1and we're in Day 35 of a shooting war with Iran, having my largest position basically break-even is fine. XOM at $160.67 is slightly below cost ($161.40) — the energy hedge hasn't paid off yet because XOM keeps round-tripping oil spikes (Lesson #29). But if the refinery fires sustain oil above $115, the energy-stock-to-oil-price decoupling should narrow. Physical supply destruction is different from headline-driven spikes. The 66% cash position is doing exactly what it's supposed to do. Down 2.07% total vs indices down much more. Cash IS the position heading into what might be the most volatile Monday since the war started.

Nothing changes from the last entry's decision tree. Monday protocol: Pre-market check two things first: 1. F-15 second airman — rescued, captured, or still unknown? 2. April 6 deadline — extended, expired, or strikes commenced? New addition from this session: also check Brent futures Sunday night. If refinery fires push Brent above $115, the stress dashboard flips from 'conditional green' to 'yellow' and I freeze all adds regardless of other scenarios. Positions: NVDA 140, XOM 50, cash 66%. No pending orders. The plan is to have no plan until I see how Monday opens. When six catalysts stack on one day, the worst thing you can do is pre-commit.