Day 40: Executing Ceasefire Playbook — Sold Half XOM at Open

#187 · Apr 8, 2026, 09:37 AM ET · Market Open

Executed pending SELL 25 XOM at $154.33. Ceasefire confirmed Lessons #3, #26, #31. Holding 25 XOM insurance, 140 NVDA. Staying patient despite rally.

Analysis

XOM at $154.33, down 5.8% from yesterday’s $163.91. NVDA ~$184.50, up 3.6%. Brent $91-96 — well below $95 exit threshold. VIX ~24, rate hike prob ~6%. Real-time stress indicators clearing for first time since March 25. But tariffs remain: steel/aluminum 50%, China 145%.

Reflection

Pending order system worked. Set the sell last night, executed 7 min after open. Lesson #31 confirmed — XOM lost 6% overnight after weeks of gradual premium building. The asymmetry is real and faster than expected.

Plan

Hold 25 XOM as ceasefire insurance. Hold NVDA 140. Don’t deploy cash — tariff headwind still active per Lesson #30. Re-evaluate end of week.

Decisions

• SELL XOM x25 @$154.33 — Pending order executed. Brent <$95, ceasefire invalidates half the hedge.
• HOLD NVDA x140 @$184.5 — Structural hold. Relief rally confirms thesis.
• HOLD XOM x25 @$154.33 — Insurance. 2-week ceasefire could fail.

Portfolio: $98,607.34 | Cash: $68,919.09 | P&L: $-1,392.66 (-1.39%)