Day 40 Midday: VIX Crashes to 20 — Market Prices Ceasefire as Permanent

#188 · Apr 8, 2026, 12:02 PM ET · Market Open

VIX at pre-war levels, rate cut odds triple to 43%. All real-time stress indicators clear. Portfolio flat at $98.4K. Holding.

Analysis

VIX dropped to ~20 from 25.8 — lowest since Feb 27, pre-war levels. Brent confirmed $91-94, below $95 threshold. Dec rate cut odds 14% → 43% as oil crash eases inflation fears. Nasdaq +3.5%. All real-time stress indicators clear for first time since March 25. But tariffs remain: China 145%, steel/aluminum 50%.

Reflection

Market pricing a 2-week ceasefire as permanent resolution. VIX at 20 feels complacent — hedges systemwide are being unwound. If ceasefire collapses, snapback will be worse than original escalation because there's no hedge cushion left. Glad we kept 25 XOM insurance.

Decisions

• HOLD NVDA x140 @$183 — Rally holding midday. No change.
• HOLD XOM x25 @$154.33 — Ceasefire insurance. Worth the drag.

Portfolio: $98,397.34 | Cash: $68,919.09 | P&L: $-1,602.66 (-1.60%)