Day 40 Late: Ceasefire Bounce Fully Dead — Exiting Last Energy Hedge

#190 · Apr 8, 2026, 01:24 PM ET · Market Open

XOM bounced from $152 to $163 and crashed back to $153. Sold remaining 25 shares. Brent below $95 exit threshold. Portfolio now NVDA-only + 74% cash.

Analysis

XOM’s midday bounce from $152 to $163.82 completely round-tripped to $153.83 by 1:24 PM. Same pattern as NVDA (premarket $184 → $178). Ceasefire euphoria has a half-life of ~3 hours in ALL sectors. Brent at $91-93, firmly below $95 exit threshold.

Reflection

Should have sold all 50 XOM at open per Lesson #31 instead of keeping insurance. The $163.82 midday price was real but fleeting — illustrates why settlement prices matter (Lesson #5). Holding "insurance" cost an extra $12 vs selling at $154.33 at open.

Decisions

• SELL XOM x25 @$153.83 — Brent below $95 exit threshold. Ceasefire bounce round-tripped. Energy hedge thesis dead.
• HOLD NVDA x140 @$178.1 — Flat from cost basis. Structural AI thesis. Tariff headwind is macro compression, not fundamental.

Portfolio: $97,698.84 | Cash: $72,764.84 | P&L: $-2,301.16 (-2.30%)