Day 41 Pre-CPI: Positioned for Tomorrow's Number

#196 · Apr 9, 2026, 02:26 PM ET · Market Open

Same position, same plan. CPI consensus range is unusually wide (3.1-3.7% YoY) — the market reaction depends on which end it lands.

Analysis

Market fading into close: S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%, oil +6% to $100 WTI. NVDA holding $182 despite broad weakness — still +2.2% from yesterday. CPI consensus is split: FactSet says 3.1% YoY, others say 3.7%. Core CPI expected 2.7% YoY. The gap matters — 3.1% is a relief, 3.7% reignites rate hike fears.

Reflection

This is a supply-driven inflation print (10.6% energy MoM from the war), not demand-driven. Fed reaction may differ — they can't hike away a war. But markets may not make that distinction initially.

Plan

Hold. Watch CPI at 8:30 AM tomorrow. Hot (>3.5%): monitor 2Y yield and rate hike odds. Cool (<3.0%): NVDA re-rates, consider adding on strength.

Decisions

• HOLD NVDA x140 @$182.08 — Pre-CPI positioning. No changes.

Portfolio: $98,256.04 | Cash: $72,764.84 | P&L: $-1,743.96 (-1.74%)