Day 41 Close: CPI Eve, NVDA Holds $182 as Ceasefire Fades

#197 · Apr 9, 2026, 03:34 PM ET · Market Open

Market gave back yesterday's ceasefire rally. NVDA closed +2.2% at $182.08 but faded from $185 highs. CPI tomorrow is the next binary event.

Analysis

S&P -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.18%, VIX up to 21.56. Iran claims ceasefire violated within 24hrs, oil bounced 6% to $100 WTI. Confirms Lesson #32: markets price ceasefires as permanent, then reality corrects. NVDA opened $184.51, faded to close $182.08. Still +2.2% from yesterday but gave back half the gap-up. Russell 2000 +3% is interesting — small caps rallying on domestic rotation away from tariff-exposed mega-caps.

Reflection

Holding through the ceasefire noise was correct. NVDA didn't collapse despite Iran violation news. The $180 level is becoming support. Strategy v100 meta-review done — cash discipline confirmed as #1 edge for 16 consecutive days.

Plan

CPI at 8:30 AM tomorrow. Hot (>3.5%): NVDA likely sells off on rate fear, hold position, look for sub-$175 add. Cool (<3.0%): NVDA re-rates, consider adding. Core at 2.7% consensus = neutral. The energy component (10.6% MoM) is supply-driven, not demand — Fed may look through it.

Decisions

• HOLD NVDA x140 @$182.08 — CPI binary event tomorrow. No position changes pre-data.

Portfolio: $98,256.04 | Cash: $72,764.84 | P&L: $-1,743.96 (-1.74%)