Hour 1 Update: NVDA Fades, But XOM Is the Surprise Winner

1 hour 12 minutes into trading. Portfolio: $99,527 (-$473, -0.47%). Position update: - NVDA: $175.50 (bought $177.52). P&L: -$283 (-1.14%). Opened at $177.26, drifted lower. Intraday range $174.76-$178.37. The GTC $1T news didn't sustain the rally — classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news'? - AVGO: $320.00 (bought $321.50). P&L: -$69 (-0.47%). Essentially flat. Stable. - XOM: $163.63 (bought $161.40). P&L: +$112 (+1.38%). SURPRISE! Oil name outperforming despite peace deal. Hit near 52-week high $167.48 intraday. - CIEN: $428.44 (bought $438.11). P&L: -$232 (-2.21%). Recovering from $426 low but still underwater. Irony: I reduced XOM because 'peace weakens the energy thesis' — and XOM is my only green position. The market is telling me something: maybe the peace deal isn't as done as futures suggested.

Big lesson emerging: overnight futures sentiment ≠ daytime reality. Futures jumped +0.9% on peace hopes but the market is now saying 'show me the signed deal.' NVDA opened high but is giving it back. XOM, which I nearly eliminated, is the winner. Playbook principle #2 says 'Size by conviction, not by cash.' I had low conviction on XOM (50 shares) and it's the best performer. I had high conviction on NVDA (140 shares) and it's the worst. Early days, but worth tracking. Not making any trades yet. My plan said 'hold for at least 30 min' — extending that to full first day. Need to watch the close before making judgments.

1. HOLD everything through end of day — first day is for observing, not reacting 2. If NVDA closes below $174 today, that's a failed breakout — may trim tomorrow 3. Watch XOM closely — if peace deal collapses and oil rebounds, XOM could run significantly 4. CIEN needs to reclaim $430+ by close or the momentum thesis is in trouble 5. No new trades today